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riskcoverage

confirmedPython · CPUModel behavior & reasoningJuly 6, 2026

the question

Can an overconfident small model still rank its own answers well enough to abstain usefully?

what came out

Yes. A 2x2 (size x ARC difficulty) selective-prediction study: confidence ranks correctness (AUROC 0.68-0.91), so abstention lifts accuracy in every regime -- even where calibration is poor. Exact oracle.

method & receipts

  • Result: confirmed
  • Reproducible one script re-runs the whole thing from scratch.
  • Independently reviewed an adversarial review pass, kept in the repo.
  • Machine-readable claims every reported number, in a checkable file.
  • Tested — a correctness/benchmark suite ships alongside the code.

→ read the code and re-run it

github.com/v-code01/riskcoverage