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riskcoverage
confirmedPython · CPUModel behavior & reasoningJuly 6, 2026
the question
Can an overconfident small model still rank its own answers well enough to abstain usefully?
what came out
Yes. A 2x2 (size x ARC difficulty) selective-prediction study: confidence ranks correctness (AUROC 0.68-0.91), so abstention lifts accuracy in every regime -- even where calibration is poor. Exact oracle.
method & receipts
- Result: confirmed
- Reproducible — one script re-runs the whole thing from scratch.
- Independently reviewed — an adversarial review pass, kept in the repo.
- Machine-readable claims — every reported number, in a checkable file.
- Tested — a correctness/benchmark suite ships alongside the code.
→ read the code and re-run it
github.com/v-code01/riskcoverage