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cotmc

null resultPython · CPUModel behavior & reasoningJuly 6, 2026

the question

Does chain-of-thought help or hurt on multiple choice?

what came out

Hurts. A 2x2 (size x ARC difficulty) study: CoT is a net negative, flipping ~2x more correct answers wrong than it rescues (pooled McNemar p=0.005). Exact oracle.

method & receipts

  • Result: null result — an honest negative, reported as it came out.
  • Reproducible one script re-runs the whole thing from scratch.
  • Independently reviewed an adversarial review pass, kept in the repo.
  • Machine-readable claims every reported number, in a checkable file.
  • Tested — a correctness/benchmark suite ships alongside the code.

→ read the code and re-run it

github.com/v-code01/cotmc